U.S. Post Election: What Real Changes to Expect on International Trade?
On December 17, 2020, AUWCL and the ABCI Institute, in partnership with the Brazilian Embassy and Women Inside Trade hosted the XVI Symposium on International Trade. This symposium weighed the challenges and opportunities they expect for the Biden Administration, and the future of multilateral relations.
AUWCL Professor Padideh Ala’i, together with the Ambassador of Brazil to the US, Nestor Forster Jr and ABCI’s Chairman Aluísio Lima-Campos opened the Symposium talking about the challenges opportunities of the new US administration for international trade.
AUWCL Adjunct Faculty Member and ABCI's Vice-Chair, Renata Amaral, moderated the first panel of the Symposium with Simon Lester, Associate Director of the CATO Institute, and Tatiana Prazeres, Senior Fellow, University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. The focus of the session was to provide a general overview on the principles and goals that will guide then President-Elect Biden’s trade policy, the relationship with China and the multilateral negotiations under the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Some of the most pressing trade issues identified by speakers included: Section 232 steel and aluminum national security tariffs; the retaliatory measures posed in response to WTO litigation, and Congressional and Executive branch conflicts over the use of those tariffs. The trade experts weighed the consequences of Section 301 tariffs imposed on China and the retaliatory measures China imposed in response to WTO litigation. Finally, the discussion pointed out uncertainties regarding the General System of Preferences (GSP) set to expire soon. Other WTO matters that the Biden Administration must deal with include the Director General appointment, and the Appellate Body crisis.
On China, Tatiana Prazeres explained that Beijing seems unwilling to discuss major improvement in U.S.-China policy. There will be no immediate change to the status quo, and the trade war tariffs will not disappear overnight. Unilaterally removing tariffs will be unlikely.
The Symposium also addressed U.S.-China trade relations. Gary Hufbauer discussed that the “cold war” between China and the US is very popular in both countries, especially in the U.S. The general consensus for the near term is that relations will not change. Jason Waite highlighted there is room for escalation of tariffs against China, including an escalation of export controls on key technologies. Waite explained we may see the Biden administration try to bring Europe, South Korea and Japan on board on issues including the equipment and software used to design and develop semiconductors for 5G tech, artificial intelligence, advance computing.